The chances for accumulating snow in Central Maryland late Monday and Tuesday have inched upward a bit, now set at 70 percent for Tuesday, according to forecasters at the National Weather Service.
But only how much snow is likely remains unclear. The job is the trouble of predicting whether, where and how two separate storm systems might get together in the region.
If the timing is right, and the two systems "phase," we get more. If they straggle through separately, we get less. The tracks matter, too, as the more southerly storm could roll off the Southeastern coast and out to sea before giving us much trouble.
For now, they don't believe the more northerly storm - riding the northern "polar" jet stream out of the Big Plains and crossing our region Tuesday - will phase with the storm spinning up over the Gulf until they've passed off the Atlantic coast:
UPDATE, 8 a.m. Sunday:
"IF THIS PHASING OCCURS By THE MID ATLANTIC.THIS Will LIKELY PREVENTA SIGNIFICANT Snow EVENT ACROSS THE CWA [FORECAST AREA] AND THIS WOULD LIKELY BEMAINLY AN ADVISORY SITUATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.HOWEVER.IF THE PHASING OCCURS SOONER.THEN PORTIONS OF THE CWACOULD SEE A More SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL /ASSUMING NO MIXING.WHICHCOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN MD/.
"RIGHT NOW WE ARE LEANING TOWARDTHE FORMER Estimate OF PHASING OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTICCOAST.BUT THIS IS Certainly NOT Written IN STONE GIVEN THECOMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION SO PLEASE STAY TUNED."
Meanwhile, AccuWeather.com hasn't pushed its predictions past Monday for the mid-Atlantic (updated map). But their judgment through Monday shows some nasty weather ahead for the South. And we would appear to be following in line.
Saturday morning's snowfall didn't come to often in Central Maryland, although McHenry, out in far western Garrett County saw 5 inches. Greensboro, in Caroline County reported 2.7 inches. A few spots saw 1 to 2 inches, but almost of the remainder of us had less than an inch.
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